Tuesday, December 15, 2009

BCS Championship Game Decides NCAA Football Best Conference Title


By Cliff Bell


The bowl season has brought the usual conference head-to-head competitions in NCAA football, and the result for the "Best Conference" title comes down to the BCS Championship game.

There were 33 bowl games between December 20th and January 6th involving 11 different conferences. The ACC was invited to the most bowl games (10), followed closely by the SEC (8), the Big 12 (7) and Big Ten conferences (7). The best won-loss record for bowl games was the PAC-10 which won all five of its bowl games, followed by the SEC at 5-2, and the Big 12 at 4-2. The SEC and Big 12 square off in the BCS National Championship game on Thursday. The decision on which is the best conference in the nation in NCAA Division 1A comes down to the BCS Championship game, and here's why...

Though the ACC had the most bowl invitations, they finished the bowl season with a less than .500 performance winning just 4 of those 10 games. Additionally, they were 0-4 against the SEC, Big 12, and Pac-10. The Pac-10 received 5 bowl invitations and won all five games. Those wins came against teams from the Big 12, the Big East, the ACC, the Mountain West, and the Big Ten conferences. That's a great record against strong conferences from across the nation. It would have been greater if the Pac-10 could have had one more appearance against an SEC school. But, given the fact that half the conference schools went to a bowl is a big feather in the Pac-10 cap. (When is the Pac-10 going to pick up two more schools and begin division play?)

The Big East, Conference USA, the WAC, and the Mid-American conferences all had 6 bowl bids with the best record among them being shared by the Big East Conference and Conference USA, each ending up 4-2 in bowl games. Of those 12 games, only two were against the conferences at the top of the bowl game win-loss heap (Pac-10, SEC, and Big 12). Neither the WAC nor the MAC played any schools from the Pac-10, SEC, or Big 12. The WAC was 2-4 in bowl games, and the MAC went 0-6 against conferences that did not finish in the top 5 in terms of bowl victories.

Lest I fail to mention the Big Ten, they finished 1-6 in their bowl games. But in their defense, they did play 6 of their 7 bowl games against the SEC, Big 12, and PAC-10. And their one victory came against an SEC school.

To finish out the conference list, the Sun Belt Conference finished 1-1 in bowl games. The Mountain West finished 3-2 in bowl games, which included a 1-1 record against the "Big 3" at the top of the bowl game won-loss pile. The Utes victory over the Crimson Tide was impressive!

Why does the "Best Conference" title come down to the BCS Championship game? Remember that we are looking for:

* Conference having the best overall strength

* Combined with best record against other conferences

Even though the Pac-10 sports a 100% victory margin in bowl competition, only 50% of the conference teams were even bowl-eligible. The Pac-10 needs to follow the lead of the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 conferences by adding two more schools and break into division play. The reason? When you look at the SEC, ACC, and Big 12 conferences, all three had greater than 50% of their teams bowl-eligible!

That leaves us with the SEC and the Big 12 as the two conferences with the best overall strength within the conference, combined with the best record of performance against the other conferences. The SEC had 75% of their teams bowl-eligible vs the Big 12 with 58%. That sounds like a large disparity, but the numbers are SEC-8 teams vs Big 12-7 teams. Pretty close. In head-to-head competition SEC vs Big 12, it is SEC 1-0 against the Big 12 during the bowl season. So, should Oklahoma beat Florida on Thursday, I would consider the Big 12 the better conference. Their bowl records would be 1-1 in head-to-head, but the Big 12 Champion would have beaten the SEC champion. Should Florida defeat Oklahoma, the SEC would clearly be the best conference since they would own the best percentage of teams going to bowls of all the conferences (strength within the conference), and they would have a 2-0 bowl record against the second best conference (by conference strength), the Big 12.

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