Tuesday, November 1, 2011

2011 San Francisco 49ers Season Preview (Part 1 - The Offense)

Time certainly flies and it just seemed so recently ago when Mike Singletary was still patrolling the 49er sideline with that intense scowl on his face as he watched his Niner team consistently lose games with poor execution, a lack of aggression, and being outsmarted by the opposing coaches. We seemed like the only football team last year that reached multiple 3rd and 1 situations only to attempt a pass down field for 20 yards when 1 measly yard would do. Or perhaps you remember the countless situations where Alex Smith would face intense pressure and develop his customary, escape hatch short outlet pass to Frank Gore who would then subsequently gain 6 yards and then get dropped 13 yards short of a 1st down since it was 3rd and 19. Oh, these were the fond memories all Niner fans had last year. What will happen this year? More of the same? A complete turnaround? I'm not going to lie. I can't predict the future, but I may as well try.

Let's start with the men in the trenches.....

1) OLine: One of the major strengths of this team. Joe Staley and Anthony Davis are solid young tackles who will be counted on for protection. Staley is an absolute mauler by the way. He's the kind of guy you wouldn't want to bump into at the bar and spill your 7 dollar Corona all over. And since Staley is protecting Alex Smith's blindside, he will have the most important job to do. No worries there though, he's done a fantastic job thus far. The middle of the line has seen some changes with David Baas, last year's starting C now being replaced by Adam Snyder. Iupati and Rachel, two young and super sized guards should continue to improve and help the running game. Alex Smith was only sacked 25 times last season and despite our utter surprise, he's actually only fumbed 6 times in the past 22 games. This is the by product of a solid line. Should be no issues here.

Position Grade: B+

2) Wide Receivers: Another massive strength for the 49er team and now with the big free agent signing of Braylon Edwards, it should give this team 3 strong wideouts with Edwards joining Josh Morgan and an emerging Michael Crabtree. Look for Crabtree to slowly emerge as the go-to guy for Alex Smith. I've seen enough desperate 3rd down passes Alex Smith heaved blindly towards Crabtree's way last year to know that. The contract holdout last year hurt Crabtree's readiness and preparation, but I see a hungry player looking to prove himself after a mediocre at best rookie season. Josh Morgan is another intriguing player who has the physical gifts to make an impact. Whether he'll get the ball enough with both Edwards and Crabtree commanding most of Smith's attention is another question. I also still haven't given up on Ted Ginn Jr. as of yet. Yes, he has the hands of a 12 year old schoolgirl, but he can also run faster than 90% of the players in the league. Another key player to watch is Dominique Ziegler. He might not even make the team, but he's had a strong camp thus far and could be the 5th wideout added to the opening roster for 2011.

Position Grade: B

3) Tight Ends: Well look at this, it's another strength for this team, if not possibly their biggest strength out of all the positions. Vernon Davis will continue to be a perennial Pro-Bowler for many years to come. He has all the physical tools, and now that he's starting to gain the football IQ necessary to be a smart player as well, he will eventually take Antonio Gates and Jason Witten's throne as the best TE in football hands down. Look for more 80-90 catch, 900+ yards, and 8-12 TD seasons for many more years to come. If I had a man crush on this team, it would be for VD and his chiseled body with soft hands. (getting creepy I know). Can't ignore any man with a FOURTEEN PACK of abs. Don't sleep on Delanie Walker as well. He's a solid backup who can also catch the ball as well as get in the trenches on 3rd and inches to throw a key block for a first down.

Position Grade: A

4) Running Backs: Can Frank Gore stay healthy? That is the million dollar question. No, that should be the BILLION dollar question. Considering he's not considered a big back, he's definitely been used quite heavily in the past couple of seasons and Gore is approaching that dark dark place for running backs. (And no, I"m not talking about Spearmint Rhino). As he enters this 2011 season at the ripe age of 28, he's starting to reach the twilight years of any RB's career. He hasn't played a full 16 same season since 2006 and his carries have started to decrease every single year. In the past 5 years, he's had carries of 312 in 06', 260 in 07', 240 in 08', 229 in 09', and 203 last year in 10'. See a pattern here? I certainly do. Still don't believe me? Look at what happened to the likes of LT and Shaun Alexander once they got close to 30. Turned from heroes to zeroes, although you could argue LT still has a serviceable career. So I can't believe I'm saying this, but it may be time in the next year or so to start grooming a successor. Let's hope Gore can have a full 16 game season this year and turn back those critics. I'd like to see him with less than 250 carries this year to preserve his body and mind. If he can stay healthy, and it is a big IF, I see a 1200 yard, 10 TD season for Gore.

Anthony Dixon is a change of pace back who at 6'1, 235 pounds, can be the bulldozer in the likes of a Jerome Bettis, Brandon Jacobs, and Peyton Hillis. He's still maturing physically and developing his game so give him a little bit more time. I do think if you give him enough carries, he's good for a 6-700 yard season with several TD's and that would be fantastic for all Niner fans if Dixon and Gore develop into a potent 1-2 punch. Remember that Coach Harbaugh is a fan of smashmouth football since his days at Stanford with Toby Gerhart so I forsee Harbaugh using Dixon quite a bit to give the Niners more of a downhill running, helmet jarring, style of attack this year. And last but not last least is fullback Moran Norris. Although he probably gets lets publicity than a pimple faced, skinny computer geek at high school prom, Norris is a fantastic blocker who has done an excellent job helping out on blitzes and run packages the past several seasons. Look for more of the same.

Position Grade: A-

5) Quarterback: I'm guessing I have it all backwards. Normally you save the best for last, but in this case, I've saved the worst. As we round-up our Part 1 preview of the Niners with the offense, we encounter the mother of all evils (according to rabid Niner fans), Mr. Alex Smith. Alex can't throw. Alex can't run. Alex is a pussy. Alex has no leadership qualities, and hell, Alex couldn't even spell WIN. While some of this may indeed be true, I tend to be the optimist and point to the good things Alex Smith has done. In the past 2 seasons, Smith has maintained a QB rating above 80 and while that's nothing to be proud of, that's still better than a 1/3 of the qb's in the league. Also, his completion %s last year around 60% was better than Mark Sanchez of the Jets who finished at 54.8%. In fact, Mark Sanchez's stats last year, a 75.3 QB rating, 54.8% completion %, and 13 int's were all inferior to Alex Smith's numbers. So why do we persecute Alex Smith so heavily when a player like Mark Sanchez actually did worse? One word. WINNING. Two numbers. 11-5. (Jets record last year.)

The bottom line is the NFL is a league where only one thing matters. Whether you were Trent Dilfer with the Ravens in 2000 or Rex Grossman with the Bears in 2007, you have to win. If your team is winning despite the fact that you are putting up piss poor numbers, all tends to be forgiven and nobody cares. Dilfer was applauded in 2000 for not LOSING the Super Bowl and Grossman was the starting QB for the Bears just because they somehow kept winning with him at the helm.

Alex Smith simply has not won in this league so we tend to over exert too much criticism on his overall play. Don't get me wrong, I'm not saying his talent is the second coming of Montana either, but c'mon, would you have rather him or Bruce Gradskowski? I'm not condoning the fact that winning IS the most important ingredient and probably the only thing Smith should be proficient at first and foremost, I just truly feel he never really had the pieces around him to consistently do so. Think about it. This guy has had 5 offensive coordinators in the past 5 years alone, and now with Harbaugh at the helm, 3 different head coaches as well. Give him some continuity. And no, I'm not defending Alex Smith because I believe he's great. I'm just stating facts.

Talent wise, this is finally the season where I truly feel Alex Smith has absolutely no excuses. This is the best offense we've had in the past 5 seasons that Smith has been here. Edwards, Gore, Crabtree, Morgan Davis, Walker, Ginn, and Dixon hopefully will be the names you remember that belong to a dynamic 49er offensive attack. I'm also hoping for better playcalling this year, and Harbaugh hopefully can figure out that 3rd and 1 down the field throws aren't exactly high percentage. Look, I know that Smith has had plenty of chances and we've all heard the saying. Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me. Well let's hope that Alex Smith doesn't fool anybody in 2011.

Position Grade: C

Overall 2011 49er Offense Grade: B

That rounds up the Part 1 of my 2011 preview. Part 2 which covers the defense will be out shortly. Be a champ. Stay tuned for that.

P.S.- I didn't forget about Colin Kaepernick btw. He's an interesting player with very intriguing tools, but as long as Harbaugh is the coach, he'll be in favor of a much more Pro-Style type QB than a QB that solely operated in the Pistol offense in college. And no, Kaepernick does NOT remind me of Michael Vick. (I know some Niner fans keep saying that) Until Kaepernick can prove he can play in the pocket as well, he won't be starting any time soon. Well that's my thought anyways. Feel free to make me eat my words if something changes.

Article can also be seen on Blazing Banter sports blog: www.blazingbanter.wordpress.com

Blazing Banter, "The Xs and Os from the Insatiable World of Sports". www.blazingbanter.wordpress.com


By Garrick Jang

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